INEGI's Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE) estimates that Mexico's economy grew 1.7% annually in June 2026, its best reading since last December, with a monthly advance of 0.2% compared to May, following the 0.3% contraction recorded the previous month.

The figure confirms that the second quarter closes with an acceleration relative to the start of the year. According to the report from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the April-June period is on track for annual growth of 1.8%, well above the 0.3% recorded in the first quarter and the highest quarterly figure since early 2024. In cumulative first-half terms, Mexico's economy has expanded 1.1%, compared with 0.4% in the same period of 2025, according to data cited by El Financiero.

The 0.2% monthly advance and the 1.7% annual growth are two distinct measurements of the same indicator: the first compares June against May in seasonally adjusted figures; the second measures the level of activity against the same month of the prior year. Both derive from the IOAE's statistical model, which provides an early read on the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE).

By sector, tertiary activities (services and commerce, which account for roughly two-thirds of GDP) maintained annual expansion of 2.2% in both May and June, according to INEGI's estimate. Secondary activities (manufacturing and construction) moved from zero annual growth in May to 0.5% in June, an improvement that El Universal attributes in part to the start of the World Cup.

Looking ahead, projections for year-end 2026 remain modest. Citi's biweekly survey of 35 institutions places the private-sector consensus at 1.1%, while the International Monetary Fund revised its estimate to 1.2%.

The IOAE is a timely estimate published two weeks ahead of the official IGAE. Confirmation of the June figure will arrive with INEGI's final report at the end of July, setting the tone for the second half of the year.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.