The Bank of Mexico raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 on Wednesday, August 26, from 1.1% to 1.5%, according to its April-June Quarterly Report. The revision comes after the economy grew faster than anticipated in the second quarter, though the central bank simultaneously trimmed its 2027 estimate.
The new forecast places full-year growth between 1% and 2%, up from the prior range of 0.5% to 1.7%. For 2027, the outlook was lowered from 2.1% to 2.0%, with an interval of 1.2% to 2.8%. The central bank attributed the upgrade to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the second quarter, partly offset by a sharper-than-projected slowdown in the third. Uncertainty looms over the horizon: El Financiero reported that Governor Victoria Rodríguez noted that investment will remain weak due to uncertainty in the trade relationship with the United States and the new phase of annual USMCA reviews.
The 2026 revision reflects, the central bank explained, higher-than-anticipated GDP growth in the second quarter, an effect partly offset by a more pronounced slowdown in the third quarter. The risk balance for growth is skewed to the downside, given the possibility that trade uncertainty intensifies, geopolitical conflicts escalate, and financial markets experience bouts of volatility. On the upside, the institution cited faster-than-expected progress in the annual reviews, a USMCA ratification, stronger U.S. economic growth, and advances in infrastructure projects. According to El Universal, the bank warned that U.S. trade policy, as Mexico's primary trading partner, poses risks in both directions.
The next key marker for the Mexican economy will come with the annual USMCA review and the central bank's upcoming monetary policy decisions. The trajectory of services inflation will be critical in determining the direction of the benchmark rate, currently at 6.50%.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.