The equatorial Pacific recorded temperature anomalies close to 3 °C as of September 14, 2026, and Citi considers the phenomenon to have already crossed the Super El Niño threshold. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assigns a 75% probability that October-December will exceed in intensity every El Niño episode recorded since 1950.
The episode was declared in June 2026, but its intensification changed the diagnosis this month. For Mexico, the risk reads on two fronts. Specialists at Banco de México estimate that white corn could become as much as 21% more expensive and beans as much as 29% more expensive under a scenario of extreme drought lasting more than three months, according to Reforma. In energy, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the regional impact at some 150 million barrels of oil equivalent, roughly 4.1% of primary consumption in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Chile. Mexico appears less exposed than the rest of the region on the food front, according to Citi's analysis.
The figures behind the alert are specific. The Oceanic Niño Index estimated by Citi reached 2.3 °C in early September, above the 2 °C threshold that defines a super episode. The FAO global food price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, against 0.8% in July, with sugar up 11.3%. Citi places palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa and Australian wheat among the most exposed commodities. Global palm oil stocks equal 18.3% of consumption, their lowest level in a decade, according to Capital Nomura Securities. In Brazil, hydropower generation through August ran 33.3 TWh below its climate norm. Johanna Chua, an analyst at Citi, sums it up: "we are now firmly in Super El Niño territory."
The next official signal arrives on October 8, with NOAA's updated ENSO diagnostic. The October-December quarter is the window analysts are watching: its intensity will determine how much of this pressure passes through to food prices and to electricity generation into 2027.
This note was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.
