The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its interest rate on September 16, 2026, and the differential with Banco de México's rate narrowed to 250 basis points, its lowest level since December 16, 2015. It is the narrowest gap between the two rates in nearly eleven years.
The Fed's adjustment was 25 basis points, by unanimous vote, and took its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since July 26, 2023, according to Banco Base data reported by Proceso. Banco de México is holding its rate at 6.50%, so the gap stands at 250 basis points. The Citi Expectations Survey shows a consensus of 17.50 pesos per dollar at the close of 2026, against 17.1706 units at the close on Thursday, September 17. The figure matters for Mexico because the differential is the magnet for the carry trade: investors who fund themselves in dollars to invest in pesos. When the gap narrows, those trades yield less and international portfolios tend to reduce their exposure to the peso.
In a report cited by El CEO, Laura Torres, chief investment officer at IMB Capital Quants, wrote that "although this gap still offers a positive cushion to sustain carry trade operations, its appeal is progressively weakening." The same report notes that the Bank of Japan anticipated a 25 basis point hike to 1.25%, its highest level in more than 30 years, a move that makes yen financing more expensive and adds volatility to currencies such as the peso. Janneth Quiroz of Monex and Luis Gonzali of Franklin Templeton México agreed that it is still premature to talk about the end of the superpeso; Gonzali added that the most likely scenario is an orderly depreciation toward the end of the year.
The next data point comes on September 24, when Banco de México announces its monetary policy decision. The analyst consensus expects it to hold the rate at 6.50%, with attention on how the exchange rate behaves.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.