The Ministry of Energy (Sener) published on Monday, September 7, 2026, in the Diario Oficial de la Federación the Hydrocarbon Sector Development Plan 2025-2039, which contemplates incorporating 7,292 million barrels of crude oil equivalent into national reserves between 2025 and 2039, according to Energía a Debate.
The plan documents the decline it seeks to reverse: reserves fell from 43,075 million barrels of crude equivalent in 2010 to 23,146 million in 2024, a 46 percent drop, according to data in the plan as reported by Energía a Debate. In the sector, reserves are classified as 1P, 2P and 3P according to their extraction probability, and the incorporation target focuses especially on 3P reserves through discovery. For Mexico, sustaining natural gas reserves and production means less dependence on energy imports and greater certainty for the North American region, where Mexican supply integrates with that of the United States and Canada.
The plan breaks down the origin of those volumes: between 2026 and 2030, shallow waters will concentrate up to 46 percent of the reserves to be incorporated and onshore fields around 20 percent; by 2036, deepwater will represent up to 90 percent of the incorporation of 3P resources. The period's peak will arrive in 2029, at 822 million barrels. The liquid hydrocarbon production target holds at 1.8 million barrels per day through 2039, with participation from Pemex and private companies, and natural gas remains at around 5,000 million cubic feet per day, with a maximum of 6,658 million in 2038. In refining, El Diario de Chihuahua reports that gasoline output will rise from 403,000 to 624,000 barrels per day and diesel from 230,000 to 441,000, with the Olmeca refinery running at full capacity.
The plan charts the sector's course through 2039: sustaining production, growing reserves and expanding refining capacity. The next milestones will be the Olmeca refinery's full commissioning and the advance of exploratory activity.
This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.