If the United States blocks diesel exports to Mexico, the country's fiscal deficit would approach 5% of GDP, Moody's Ratings estimated on September 25, 2026. With the Finance Ministry projecting GDP above 39.4 trillion pesos for 2027, that impact is equivalent to nearly 2 trillion, according to the firm's calculation.

Renzo Merino, vice president of Sovereign Risk at the rating agency, clarified that the cancellation of US exports is for now an alternative scenario and not an implemented policy. The idea emerges after President Donald Trump expressed his support for an initiative to ban diesel exports for 90 days, amid rising international prices. On the Mexican side, the analysis by Ramsés Pech in Energía Hoy estimates that the complementary fiscal stimulus for diesel went from 0.1501 pesos per liter in the week of September 12 to 18 to 1.8361 pesos in the week of September 19 to 25, a cost of 939.92 million pesos over seven days.

Rosanety Barrios, a consultant in energy regulation and policy, noted on the same panel that Pemex does not have strategic inventories and that its storage capacity is equivalent to about 13 days of demand. The oil company's data show that in July national diesel production was 289,433 barrels per day, with imports of 90,495 barrels per day. The US Energy Information Administration reports that in 2025 that country exported 80.15 million barrels to Mexico, an average of 220,000 barrels per day. The same analysis projects that the complementary stimulus set out in Article Four of the SHCP's weekly agreement will cost between 5,675 and 20,642 million pesos from September 26 to December 31, with a base scenario of 13,024 million.

The initiative to suspend exports for 90 days has not yet become policy, and its discussion is taking place in the context of the US election campaign ahead of the November vote. The reference point for measuring the effect will be the 2027 Economic Package and the accumulated fiscal stimulus as of December 31.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.