The fiscal stimulus on the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) for gasoline and diesel fell 13,021 million pesos short of the programmed target in the first half of 2026, according to the Quarterly Public Finance Report that the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) published on July 30, as reported by Energía a Debate.
The shortfall represents 9.2% of total public revenues that the Finance Ministry failed to collect between January and June, a gap that reached 141,003 million pesos. The stimulus was activated in April 2026 to contain domestic fuel prices following the surge in international oil prices triggered by the conflict between the United States and Iran. For Mexican households and the transport sector, the subsidy acted as a direct brake on pump-price increases, though its cost falls on public finances.
The net fiscal revenue loss was, however, smaller than the gross cost of the stimulus. According to El Economista, the government allocated roughly 42,000 million pesos to the subsidy during the semester, but gasoline and diesel demand grew roughly 13% year-on-year thanks to the crackdown on fuel smuggling, generating additional IEPS revenues that partially mitigated the impact. The Deputy Minister of Revenue, Carlos Lerma, explained that the net loss of approximately 13,000 million pesos is offset by higher oil revenues flowing to the federal government through the Petroleum Welfare Levy (Derecho Petrolero para el Bienestar), since Pemex benefited from high crude prices on its exports; the company's own revenues grew 4.1% in real annual terms. Total IEPS fuel tax collection reached 219,889.1 million pesos in the semester, below target but above the same period in 2025.
Finance Secretary Édgar Amador projected GDP growth of at least 1.5% for 2026 and confirmed that budget allocations for Pemex are on track. The SHCP noted that, should oil prices escalate further, the government has room to expand the stimulus without destabilizing public finances, because revenues from the Petroleum Welfare Levy function as an automatic counterweight.
This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.