The Japanese agency Japan Credit Rating (JCR) affirmed on October 19, 2026 Mexico's foreign-currency sovereign rating at A- with a stable outlook, four notches above investment grade, and its local-currency rating at A+, according to the report published by the agency Infobae. In the same document, the rating agency named Petróleos Mexicanos as the main risk to the country's credit profile.

The starting point of the analysis is the fiscal figures. According to the JCR report, Public Sector Financial Requirements rose from 5.8% of GDP in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025, and would have stood at 4.3% without the extraordinary support to Pemex. Public debt equaled 52.6% of GDP in 2025, with about 80% placed in the domestic market at long term and fixed rate. For the Mexican community in the United States and Canada, a stable sovereign rating affects the cost of credit on public debt and the country risk perception reflected in cross-border investment decisions, including those that depend on the T-MEC review.

Energía a Debate details the agency's reasoning on the oil company: years of underinvestment in exploration and extraction, stagnant production and pending maintenance on its assets. The rating agency acknowledges progress in operating efficiency and in processing at the National Refining System, driven by capital from the federal government, and warns that prolonging government assistance can delay fiscal consolidation. Its technical recommendation is that Pemex restore crude production and steadily improve its cash flow. In the rest of the diagnosis, JCR forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, and mentions that stricter rules of origin in the T-MEC review may discourage foreign investment.

The federal government projects a deficit of 4.1% of GDP for 2026 and debt of 54%, on a path toward 56.5% in 2031. The next rating reviews and Pemex's production performance are the data points that will shape the debate over the sovereign rating in the coming months.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.