Mexico's public debt would reach 61.2% of GDP in 2030, against the target of the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) of closing the decade below 57%, according to HR Ratings' projection released on October 15, 2026, when it cut the long-term sovereign rating from HR BBB+ (G) to HR BBB (G).
That figure corresponds to the Historical Balance of the Public Sector's Financial Requirements (SHRFSP), the broadest measure of the country's debt. The rating agency estimates that the metric would reach 65.6% of GDP in 2033 and forecasts economic growth of 1.3% in 2026, below the 1.5% projected by the government, according to the same note.
The rating agency's move comes five months after Moody's downgraded Mexico in May. According to Moody's, the SHRFSP would reach 60% of GDP in 2030 and the country could lose investment grade without significant fiscal adjustments. For the finances of Mexican families on both sides of the border, the key reading is the cost of financing: if the country pays more for its debt, the fiscal margin for programs, public works and income support narrows.
In its report, HR Ratings attributes the cut to the deterioration of the main fiscal balances. The rating agency expects Pemex's generation of financial surplus to remain insufficient to stop receiving government support for debt payments at least until 2029, and it estimates deficits of 4.6% of GDP in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, which would add up to five consecutive years above 4%.
The country keeps its investment grade: the outlook remained stable and the short-term rating was reaffirmed at HR3 (G), which leaves the sovereign rating three notches away from speculative grade. HR Ratings analyst Édgar González explained that more than the pace of growth of the historical balance, the concern is that economic activity does not grow enough to sustain the increases in debt.
That diagnosis clashes with a different stance in the same rating band. The rating agency Japan Credit Rating (JCR) on Monday kept the A+ rating for Mexico's debt level and considered that its debt ratio, close to 50%, remains relatively contained among sovereigns in that range.
With the stable rating, the next test will be the performance of the 2027 Economic Package and the review by the rating agencies that still have Mexico several notches higher. The question for the markets is whether the preliminary first-quarter growth figures confirm the trajectory projected by HR Ratings and Moody's, or the one Hacienda defends.
This note was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.
