The Federal Electricity Commission's 2026-2030 Sustainability Plan calls for a 72 percent increase in natural gas-fired electricity generation by the end of the decade, using 2025 as the base year. The document, approved on June 29, 2026, was published on October 14 and positions combined-cycle plants as the technology underpinning the reliability of the National Electric System as clean capacity grows.

Natural gas already accounts for roughly 70 percent of the electricity produced in the country, according to El Economista data published on September 18, and 75 percent of the gas consumed in Mexico arrives by pipeline from the United States. The Energy Ministry describes the energy transition as an orderly, scheduled shift from conventional sources to clean ones, and CFE states in the plan that it aims to carry this out effectively, efficiently, fairly and innovatively. For the Mexican and Mexican-American community, the generation mix affects tariff costs and the country's progress on its climate commitments.

The figures in the document and in the market sketch the starting point:

  • Renewable generation: 9 percent projected increase between 2026 and 2030. - Installed capacity at the close of 2025: 67.58 percent fossil fuel-burning plants and 32.42 percent renewables. - Imports: 7,900 million cubic feet per day on average during August 2026, a record attributed to CFE's consumption for electricity generation, according to Wood Mackenzie. - Domestic production: Pemex extracted 4,200 million cubic feet per day this year, down from 6,401 million in 2015.

The plan adds 48 goals and 107 lines of action across three dimensions: environmental, social and institutional strengthening. General Director Emilia Esther Calleja Alor said during the Board of Directors session that sustainability is being integrated without compromising the security and reliability of the National Electric System, according to Forbes México. The government also proposed cutting gas imports from 75 to 50.5 percent by 2030.

The next five years will determine whether natural gas serves as a bridge or as the final destination of the electricity matrix. The indicator to watch will be the renewable capacity that CFE brings online each year.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.