Private consumption logs 15 months of growth; June posts slowest gain

Private consumption in Mexico posted 15 consecutive months of annual growth according to INEGI, but June recorded the streak's smallest monthly gain. What to expect from household spending in the second half of the year.

Mexican household spending grew 2.6 percent year-over-year in June 2026, extending its expansion to 15 consecutive months, according to the Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP) published by INEGI on July 16. The monthly gain was just 0.1 percent, the lowest of the entire streak, a signal that caution is taking hold among Mexican families.

In May, the same indicator had reported annual growth of 2.8 percent and a monthly gain of 0.4 percent, according to revised IOCP figures. The June slowdown comes amid a mixed backdrop: formal employment registered with IMSS stands at roughly 22.8 million workers, its highest level, and real wages remain on a positive trajectory, yet households are showing caution. Analysts at BBVA Research, cited by La Jornada on July 15, noted that families have adopted a prudent stance in the face of economic uncertainty.

The 2026 World Cup, BBVA Research noted, provided a temporary boost to private consumption, but not enough to offset sluggish growth. The IOCP is a preliminary INEGI estimate that anticipates the Indicador Mensual del Consumo Privado (IMCP) and is subject to revision. For the second quarter of 2026, the institute estimates quarterly consumption growth of 1.1 percent, a recovery from the 0.8 percent contraction in the first quarter.

Specialists from Monex, Banamex, and Valmex, consulted by El Financiero, agree that the June moderation does not signal a trend reversal. Janneth Quiroz of Monex noted that consumption, alongside exports, has been one of the main pillars of economic growth. Rodolfo Ostolaza of Banamex described the data as more measured growth and flagged upside risks to his 2.0 percent consumption forecast for 2026.

Mexican household consumption holds its expansionary streak, but the intensity of the second half will depend on whether employment, real wages, and remittances offset the caution that is currently holding back spending. The next IMCP release, with definitive June data, will provide a clearer picture.

This piece was drafted with AI assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.

This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.