Moody's Ratings raised its growth forecast for Mexico on November 10, 2026 to 2% this year and 2.1% in 2027, an upward revision of one percentage point from the 1% the rating agency had estimated for 2026. The adjustment contrasts with the cuts the same firm applied to Brazil and Argentina for 2027.

Moody's global economic outlook report, released on Tuesday and reported by Aristegui Noticias, attributes the improvement to the spillover effects of investment in artificial intelligence, defense spending and the strengthening of supply chains. The rating agency put global expansion at 2.6% annually between 2026 and 2028, with the United States, Mexico's main trading partner under the T-MEC, growing 2.3% this year and 2% in the following two. El Financiero details that the revision amounts to 1.0 percentage point for 2026 and 0.6 points for 2027. The figure matters for the Mexican community in North America because an upward revision by a rating agency improves the country's risk perception among international investors and its financing cost.

Moody's kept its projected expansion for 2028 at 2%, after the 0.5% estimated for 2025, and warned that the momentum from digital infrastructure will lose strength in 2027, when the sector's large companies moderate their investment increase to around 25%, after exceeding 100% in 2026. On prices, it projects inflation of 3.7% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 3.5% in 2028. On Banco de México, it said the November rate cut was unexpected and anticipated a prolonged pause given inflationary and external risks. The firm added that emerging-market central banks face greater constraints on continuing to cut rates because of high global rates and currency pressures. In the region, Brazil drops from 2% in 2026 to 1.6% in 2027 and Argentina grows 2.9% this year and 3% the next, both with downward revisions.

The next data point to watch is the November inflation reading and Banxico's next monetary policy decision, which the rating agency places within a pause. The magnitude of the revision will also depend on whether investment in artificial intelligence keeps the pace that sustained it this month.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.