The price of Mexico's export crude blend closed July 2026 at $80.56 per barrel, a 24% increase from the June close and its largest monthly gain since March, driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict that has kept the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global crude transits, semi-paralyzed.
The rebound reflects the transit crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces, which began in late February, have drastically reduced tanker traffic. According to Energía a Debate, the average crude price rose 23% in July: WTI gained 19% and Brent 22.8%. For Mexico, the increase cuts both ways. It offers breathing room for oil revenues in a context of limited public-finance headroom, while also pressuring the cost of gasoline and diesel paid by consumers on both sides of the border. According to La Jornada, the move is the largest since March and was accompanied by a 6% decline in the final week of the month.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard blocked the passage of at least two tankers in the final days of July, and four other vessels altered their routes, according to the Fars agency. Commercial crude inventories in the United States fell to their lowest level since 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), adding further upward pressure to prices. In the case of the Mexican blend, the barrel moved from $63.10 at the end of June to $80.56 on July 31, an increase of $17.46 over the month. The 23% average monthly differential and the 24% close-to-close figure reflect two distinct metrics of the same upward movement, not a contradiction in the data.
With hostilities active in Hormuz, crude prices remain above $80. For the Mexican and Mexican-American community, that means higher gasoline costs in the short term, but also greater fiscal revenues for the federal government if prices hold.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.