The World Bank kept its GDP growth forecast for Mexico at 1.3 percent for 2026, according to the June edition of its Global Economic Prospects report released on June 11, 2026. The USMCA renegotiation emerged as the primary source of uncertainty for the Mexican economy.

The analysis indicates the institution expects moderate impact from the Middle East conflict on energy exporters like Mexico, but warned of mounting global inflationary pressures. The forecast projects Mexico will grow an average of 1.8 percent in 2027-2028, trailing the Latin American and Caribbean regional average of 2.2 percent for 2026. This sluggish trajectory contrasts sharply with the World Bank's global forecast of 2.5 percent growth for 2026.

Mexico lags behind Brazil, projected at 1.9 percent growth for 2026, and Argentina at 3.6 percent. The World Bank attributes Mexico's weakness to three factors: uncertainty surrounding the ongoing USMCA renegotiation, a domestic demand recovery that remains tepid, and private investment expanding below potential. Three consecutive years of below-regional-average growth marks the institution's first formal warning of this kind since 2023. The report also flags Mexico's fiscal transition and mounting spending pressures on social infrastructure as concerns to monitor.

The USMCA renegotiation will dominate Mexico's macroeconomic calendar over the next six months, with formal consultations set to begin in the second half of the year. The World Bank's next forecast arrives in January 2027, which will reveal whether trade uncertainty translates into a further downward revision.

Key Questions

**What is the World Bank's growth forecast for Mexico in 2026?**

The World Bank maintains a 1.3 percent GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2026, according to the Global Economic Prospects released June 11, 2026.

**How does Mexico compare regionally?**

Mexico trails the Latin American and Caribbean regional average of 2.2 percent, as well as Brazil at 1.9 percent and Argentina at 3.6 percent for 2026.

**What are the main risks to Mexico's economy?**

The USMCA renegotiation, weak domestic demand, and private investment below its potential capacity, according to the World Bank report.

Sources