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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has increased to 63 percent the probability that the El Niño climate pattern will reach very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center advisory released in June.

Coverage from Wired compiles the latest forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which project sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3 degrees Celsius by December. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) bulletin places an 80 percent probability of an El Niño event during June-August 2026 and above 90 percent for continuation through November, with anticipated effects on temperatures and rainfall across multiple continents. The term super El Niño is not a formal operational classification, but rather a media label used to describe events with thermal anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.

For Mexico, forecasts from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) align on the impact of a strong El Niño, predicting above-average rainfall in the north and northeast during winter, more intense droughts in the southeast, and fewer but potentially more severe Atlantic hurricanes. The 2025-2026 water year closed with reservoir levels below average according to Conagua data, a situation that heightens agricultural sensitivity to any imbalance in seasonal patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has documented that global warming amplifies El Niño-related extremes with each recent cycle.

NOAA's next technical advisory will be released in July, allowing for adjusted preventive measures in orchards, dams, and coastal infrastructure. The WMO will issue a joint update with the WHO on heat impacts in August, a key date for defining Northern Hemisphere summer water management strategies.

Frequently Asked Questions

**What probability does NOAA assign to a very strong El Niño for late 2026?**

63 percent between November 2026 and January 2027, according to the June advisory from the Climate Prediction Center as reported by Wired.

**What impacts will El Niño have on Mexico?**

Above-average rainfall in the north and northeast during winter, more intense droughts in the southeast, and fewer but potentially more severe Atlantic hurricanes, according to the SMN.

**What probability does the WMO give to this event?**

80 percent for June-August 2026 and above 90 percent for continuation through November, according to the World Meteorological Organization bulletin.

Sources

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