Mexico's Treasury Ministry (Hacienda) estimated on July 30 that the Mexican economy will grow between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2026, above the 1.1% median forecast by private analysts. The question is whether the second-quarter rebound, driven by the 2026 World Cup, will hold through December.
Inegi reported on July 30 that gross domestic product grew 1.5% in the second quarter relative to the previous one, its strongest advance since 2020, and 2.1% year-on-year, according to the flash estimate reported by El Financiero. The rebound coincided with the 2026 World Cup, a recovery in agricultural output, and record exports, according to Bloomberg Línea. Treasury Secretary Edgar Amador said the economy had "returned to a growth path." The gap between Hacienda's projection and that of analysts matters for investment and employment decisions as the year closes.
Hacienda projects full-year growth of between 1.8% and 2.8%, and its chief economist, Rodrigo Mariscal, set a baseline of 1.5% using preliminary second-quarter data. Bank forecasts are more conservative: Banamex calculates 1.3% for 2026, Monex 1.14%, Banorte 1.4%, and Banco Bx+ 0.9%. Analysts broadly agree that the World Cup tailwind will fade in the second half and that the annual USMCA review will continue to weigh on investment and employment. Non-automotive manufacturing grew close to 20% year-on-year, driven by exports of data-center equipment to the United States, according to figures cited by El Financiero. Valmex chief economist Gerónimo Ugarte argued that the rebound cannot be attributed solely to the World Cup, but also reflects the recovery of the agricultural sector and stronger external demand.
What comes next is set for the second-half agenda: the first round of the USMCA review, the 2027 Economic Package, and the recovery of private investment. Those three fronts will determine whether the year-end figure lands closer to Hacienda's projection or to the analysts' forecast.
This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.