The Mexican crude blend closed the first week of July at $63 per barrel, $10 below the $73 assumed in the 2026 Economic Package. That gap gives the Finance Ministry (Secretaría de Hacienda) room to recalibrate the weekly excise-tax subsidy it applies to Magna, Premium, and diesel fuel.
Since late March, the ministry has reactivated the special excise tax (IEPS) subsidy on fuels to shield Mexican consumers from international price volatility, which was triggered at the time by the Middle East conflict. The mechanism operates on a weekly basis: when the international reference price rises, the subsidy increases to contain pump prices; when it falls, the support is reduced. The ministry originally projected its oil revenues against a blend price of $73, a level the market has not sustained in 2026.
For the week of July 4-10, the Magna subsidy stood at 10.62 percent, equivalent to a discount of 0.71 pesos per liter with a final IEPS payment of 5.98 pesos, while the diesel subsidy reached 17.85 percent, a relief of 1.31 pesos per liter, according to the agreement published by the Finance Ministry (SHCP) in the Official Gazette (Diario Oficial de la Federación). Both supports rose relative to the prior week: 13 centavos more for Magna and 24 for diesel. Premium gasoline remained subsidy-free, with an IEPS of 5.65 pesos per liter. Janneth Quiroz, head of analysis at Monex, told El CEO that falling import costs point toward a gradual withdrawal of the subsidy. Alejandro Montufar, director of PetroIntelligence, took a contrasting view, arguing there is still room to maintain support before reaching fiscal limits.
The next weekly SHCP announcement in the Official Gazette will provide the clearest signal on the direction of the subsidy. The combination of a crude price stable at $63 and latent volatility from U.S.-Iran negotiations keeps two trajectories open: a gradual downward adjustment or an expansion of support to contain consumer prices.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.