Private analysts surveyed by Mexico's central bank (Banxico) have cut their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.09%, down sharply from 1.39% the previous month. The revision follows a contraction of 0.6% in the first quarter.

The adjustment, detailed in Banxico's fifth monthly survey, reverses a year-long streak of upward revisions. Mexico's economy faces moderate growth headwinds even as the trade balance remains in surplus and private investment stays concentrated in manufacturing. For Mexican households, growth below 1.5% means fewer formal jobs, muted wage pressure, and a tighter fiscal space for future stimulus packages. The figure aligns with recent downward revisions by Citi and the International Monetary Fund for Latin America, reflecting broader global adjustments and ongoing trade tariff negotiations.

Inflation and Currency Outlook

Analysts expect general inflation to finish 2026 at 4.36%, a modest improvement from prior quarters, then ease to 3.84% in 2027, according to coverage by Expansión. On currency, the consensus projects the peso will close the year at 17.90 per dollar, versus 18.02 in the previous survey. Citi forecasts average GDP growth of 1.6% between 2026 and 2027, with average inflation at 4.06%, per El Independiente.

The World Bank's May report similarly downgraded Mexico's growth outlook to a comparable range and flagged risks from US-Mexico tariff negotiations. All forecasts remain subject to revision pending the end of the second quarter.

What's Next

Banxico will publish its next monthly survey in July. The second-quarter GDP data, scheduled for late August, will be critical in confirming or adjusting current projections for inflation, the exchange rate, and growth.

Frequently Asked Questions

**How much did private analysts cut Mexico's 2026 GDP forecast?**

Private analysts surveyed by Banxico lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 1.09% from 1.39% in the prior month, according to the central bank's fifth monthly survey. The Mexican economy contracted 0.6% in the first quarter.

**What inflation rate do analysts expect for end-2026?**

Analysts project general inflation will close 2026 at 4.36%, according to the latest Banxico survey. For 2027, forecasts rise to 3.84%, still above the central bank's permanent 3% target.

**Where do analysts see the peso-dollar rate by end-2026?**

The consensus forecast puts the peso at 17.90 per dollar at the close of 2026, compared to 18.02 in the previous month's survey.