Mexico will not lose its investment-grade rating despite the new annual review framework for the USMCA, according to BlackRock's senior leadership in Mexico. The world's largest asset manager maintains a favorable view of Mexico's economic fundamentals, even after the United States decided not to automatically renew the trilateral trade agreement.
In early July 2026, the U.S. government announced that the USMCA would not be automatically renewed for 16 years. Instead, annual reviews will be conducted over the coming decade, a mechanism that unsettled markets over the stability of trade flows between Mexico, the United States, and Canada. Adding to that uncertainty, S&P Global Ratings and Moody's adjusted Mexico's outlook and sovereign rating, respectively, within days of each other, citing the fiscal situation as the primary risk. The rating now stands one notch from losing investment-grade status.
José Luis Ortega, head of active investments at BlackRock Mexico, acknowledged at a media conference that the signal from the rating agencies is unambiguous. "When the rating agencies align to send you a message, it is because they are clearly seeing something," he said. Even so, he considered it unlikely that Mexico would lose its sovereign rating, noting that the Ministry of Finance is taking steps to contain debt growth. Mexico's fiscal deficit exceeded 3.5 percent of GDP in 2020, above the 3.0 percent threshold recommended by the International Monetary Fund.
On the USMCA annual reviews, Sergio Méndez, CEO of BlackRock Mexico, argued that the core issue is not the agreement's duration but the smoothness of investment flows into Mexico. The periodic evaluations, he added, are not necessarily negative: "with so much change, perhaps not locking into something so long-term is not so bad."
Ortega underscored that Mexico retains structural advantages, including a skilled workforce, productive integration with North America, and energy development potential, all of which underpin long-term foreign investment. The first USMCA review under the new mechanism is scheduled for the coming months.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.